The Reopening Roadmap Emerges
(I was recently elected to represent San Jose’s District 10 and will take office in January 2021. Until then, I’m using this blog to share what I’m learning about a variety of issues relevant to San Jose and my take on those issues. I deeply appreciate your feedback and questions as I prepare to represent our community. Sign up to have these posts automatically sent to your inbox: https://forms.gle/N9af77JuK2nJFDMo6.)
Dear Neighbor,
Keeping up with the news has felt like a full-time job in recent days. Our shelter-in-place (SIP) order was extended through May with certain exceptions. The Governor suggested that schools could restart as soon as July to make up for lost learning time. The City of San Jose announced it would furlough over 1,000 workers and thousands of tenants threatened a rent strike as May rent came due.
Perhaps the most important news from the past week, however, is that state and local leaders have released indicators for reopening the economy safely. I’ve argued that we could have laid out indicators and a reopening roadmap sooner, based on lessons from other countries that have experience navigating viral respiratory epidemics. Still, I’m very glad to see a plan take shape.
In this edition of my biweekly update as your Councilmember-elect (reminder: I take office in January 2021 and, until then, Councilmember Khamis represents us at City Hall), I’ll discuss: 1) how public health officials are thinking about managing an economic reopening and where the gaps currently are, 2) the City’s response to revenue shortfalls, 3) how the SIP order is pushing local government to embrace technology, and 4) how a small local business turned tragedy into comedy. You can sign up to get these biweekly updates delivered to your inbox here: https://forms.gle/coks6KQq4Mv4acX97
Reopening Indicators and Gaps
Last Wednesday, public health departments in Santa Clara County and five other neighboring counties announced that the local SIP order would extend through May. The updated order created new exceptions for construction, landscaping and other outdoor work that can be done safely with social distancing and personal protective equipment (PPE).
This is a positive step forward. As I discussed in my last newsletter, we are walking a tightrope with significant public health risks on one side and terrible economic hardship for many on the other. The sooner we’re able to safely put people back to work in sectors that lend themselves to social distancing, the faster economic activity and income will rebound for everyone, the fewer people who will suffer lost jobs, income, savings, housing, etc., and the more we can focus our finite relief resources on those who need it most.
Last Tuesday, Governor Newsom outlined a four-stage plan for reopening the state and, eventually, ending the statewide SIP order. We are currently transitioning out of Stage 1, which focuses on reducing COVID-19 transmission and keeping essential workers safe, and into Stage 2:
However, it’s important to note that county public health officials have considerable authority to set local criteria and manage reopening based on local conditions. Last week, our County Public Health Department released a set of five indicators that will be used to assess local readiness for unwinding the local SIP order, which should follow the stages outlined above. The key indicators are:
- The total number of cases and hospitalizations in the community is flat or decreasing (14-day rolling average).
- We have sufficient hospital capacity to meet the needs of our residents (7-day rolling average).
- 200 COVID-19 viral tests conducted each day per 100,000 residents.
- We have sufficient capacity for case investigation, contact tracing, and isolation/ quarantine capacity.
- We have at least a 30-day supply of personal protective equipment (PPE) available for all healthcare providers.
How are we doing when measured against these indicators? The short answer is that we’ve made significant progress, but we have a long way to go. We are currently meeting the criteria outlined in Indicator 1, with new cases per day declining (while tests per day are slowing increasing):
And hospitalizations dropping:
We are also doing well on Indicator 2, with far fewer than 50% of patients in hospital beds being treated for COVID-19:
However, for Indicator 3, we continue to be far behind our testing capacity target, which is something I’ve discussed in past updates:
Indicator 4 is modeled on the “test and trace” method that Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and others have used to contain transmission while keeping their economies relatively open. Technically, the method has four steps: widespread testing to identify cases, isolation of those who are infected, tracing all recent contacts of infected persons, and quarantining those who may have been exposed while awaiting their test results.
Santa Clara County has identified 4 key metrics for this indicator:
Currently, I presume our capacity to execute these steps is very low (the County is not reporting corresponding performance data yet). Our ability to quickly identify and break chains of transmission will be key to reopening. Without it, reopening will simply create the spike in new cases the SIP order has prevented thus far.
We need more details from the County about how we will execute this critical part of the plan and how quickly it can be done: how we will increase testing, how we will do contact tracing rapidly and at scale, technology needs, facilities needs, and so forth.
Finally, Indicator 5 also does not have any reported performance data at this time, but we should assume that we also are not meeting our goal of a 30-day supply of PPE for all healthcare providers. (As an aside, I think that a key lesson from this crisis is that we are overly dependent on global supply chains, and especially Chinese manufacturers, for critical medical supplies and other materials of importance to national security).
I’m happy to see a clearer framework for reopening society, which helps set expectations for all of us. Now we need a clearer execution plan that invites everyone in the community to help build out the systems required to manage a successful reopening.
City Budget Cuts Begin
Last week, City Council took action to address a new, COVID-19-related revenue shortfall of about $45 million in the current budget:
This shortfall represents a $65 million net change from a pre-pandemic projected surplus of $20 million. To address the gap, City Council approved a number of spending cuts across departments, a freeze on hiring and new capital projects, and began spending down reserves. The City was also able to recognize revenue from a sales tax agreement with eBay and one-time revenue from the sale of Hayes Mansion. Additionally, it furloughed over 1,000 temporary and part-time employees, including library aides, lifeguards and other unbenefited positions. With these adjustments, the cuts amount to approximately 1.6% of the City’s $1.5 billion general fund. The general fund covers public safety, parks and libraries, infrastructure maintenance and many other city services.
While the current spending cuts are painful, we should prepare for a larger impact to the 2020–2021 budget (starting July 1st) and our city services. City Council will have a Budget Study Session on May 14th and 15th, which I plan to follow closely. I’ll be sure to update you on major developments regarding the City’s budget, service cuts and mitigation efforts.
Streamlining Government
As you probably know, I campaigned on the principles of efficiency, transparency and accountability in local government, based in part on my experience in the fast-paced technology startup world. One of the few silver linings to the pandemic, in my opinion, is that local government is increasingly using technology to enable city workers to serve the public from home.
During last week’s Council meeting, an update from San Jose’s Planning, Building and Code Enforcement Department caught my eye: the department recently expanded its online building plan submission capabilities and began using remote inspections (via video) to move projects forward. While the department is still far behind demand for its services (a longer story, to be sure), I think it’s notable that the crisis is forcing new approaches that have the potential to increase efficiency and convenience for residents and local businesses.
This is surely the tip of the iceberg. I believe there are many more opportunities to digitize, automate and streamline core government services and I’m excited to investigate the possibilities with city staff upon taking office next year. If you have suggestions for where I ought to begin, based on your personal experience with the City especially, please send your ideas my way (matt@mahanforsanjose.com).
Turning Tragedy Into Comedy
In closing, I want to highlight a local business that had a rough week and could use our support: Hub’s Coffee, which is located on Blossom Hill Road and offers great coffee and food, was broken into on April 24th. Despite the terrible experience, the owners managed to put a joyful spin on events by taking to Facebook to share a comedic recap of the events, including their new “barn door:”
I applaud Hub’s ability to make the best of a tough situation and bring a little humor to everyone’s day. Check out Hub’s Facebook feed @Hubscoffee and their website. Like many small businesses in San Jose, Hub’s remains open for online orders and pickups. Visit their website for more details.
I hope you and your loved ones are staying safe and upbeat. Please keep the topic suggestions, feedback and questions coming!
Sincerely,
Matt
Councilmember-elect, San Jose District 10; matt@mahanforsanjose.com, 408–891–9708
Matt is Councilmember-elect for San Jose District 10, which includes the Almaden, Blossom Hill, Santa Teresa and Vista Park neighborhoods. Matt and his wife, Silvia, are proud to be raising their two young children, Nina and Luke, in District 10. You can subscribe to Matt’s newsletter here: https://forms.gle/ycvcf3fbKSFU2JfA6
